43 States (with 80% of U.S. Population) will be Ignored in the 2024 Presidential Election

The 2024 presidential campaign will be concentrated in just 7 states (and one congressional district in Maine and Nebraska)—with a total of 95 electoral votes. 

● The Republican nominee can count on 218 electoral votes from 24 states.

● The Democratic nominee can count on 225 electoral votes from 19 states and DC.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency. 

Because of the state winner-take-all laws, presidential candidates only pay attention to voters in closely divided battleground states.

Thus, these 43 states and DC (with 80% of the U.S. population) will be mere spectators to the 2024 presidential election.

The 7 closely divided "battleground" states (and two congressional districts) that will decide the 2024 presidential elections are shown on the map below.

Safely Democratic

Battleground

Safely Republican

19 states and DC

7 states and 2 districts

24 states

225 electoral votes

95 electoral votes

218 electoral votes

California (54)

Arizona (11)

Alabama (9)

Colorado (10)

Georgia (16)

Alaska (3)

Connecticut (7)

Michigan (15)

Arkansas (6)

Delaware (3)

North Carolina (16)

Florida (30)

District Of Columbia (3)

Nevada (6)

Iowa (6)

Hawaii (4)

Pennsylvania (19)

Idaho (4)

Illinois (19)

Wisconsin (10)

Indiana (11)

Massachusetts (11)

Nebraska-2nd-district (1)**

Kansas (6)

Maine–Remainder (3)**

Maine-2nd-district (1)**

Kentucky (8)

Maryland (10)

 

Louisiana (8)

Minnesota (10)

 

Missouri (10)

New Hampshire (4)

 

Mississippi (6)

New Jersey (14)

 

Montana (4)

New Mexico (5)

 

Nebraska–Remainder (4)**

New York (28)

 

North Dakota (3)

Oregon (8)

 

Oklahoma (7)

Rhode Island (4)

 

Ohio (17)

Vermont (3)

 

South Carolina (9)

Virginia (13)

 

South Dakota (3)

Washington state (12)

 

Tennessee (11)

 

 

Texas (40)

 

 

Utah (6)

 

 

Wyoming (3)

 

 

West Virginia (4)

In 2020, almost all (96%) of the general-election campaign events (204 of 212) occurred in the 12 states where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow eight-point range between 46% and 54%.  Similarly, in 2016, 2012, and 2008, almost all campaigning occurred in states where the two-party vote was within an eight-point (or narrower) range.* 

 

* In 2016, almost all (94%) of the general-election campaign events (375 of 399) occurred in the 12 states where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow eight-point range between 47% and 55%.  In 2012, 100% of the 253 general-election campaign events occurred in the 12 States where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow six-point range between 45% and 51%.  In 2008, almost all (98%) of the general-election campaign events (293 of 300) occurred in the 14 states where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow eight-point range between 42% and 50%.

** Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes statewide and one electoral vote for each congressional district. Maine’s 2nd district and Nebraska’s 2nd district are shown separately in this table because these particular districts are competitive (and, in fact, voted differently for President from the rest of the state in 2020).  Then, Maine’s remaining three non-competitive electoral votes and Nebraska’s remaining four non-competitive electoral votes are shown separately.