The 2024 presidential campaign will be concentrated in nine states (and one congressional district in Maine and Nebraska)—with a total of 109 electoral votes. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency.
● The Republican nominee can count on 218 electoral votes from 24 states.
● The Democratic nominee can count on 211 electoral votes from 17 states and DC.
That is, 41 states and DC (with 80% of the U.S. population) will be spectator states in 2024.
In 2020, almost all (96%) of the general-election campaign events (204 of 212) occurred in the 12 states where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow eight-point range between 46% and 54%. Similarly, in 2016, 2012, and 2008, almost all campaigning occurred in states where the two-party vote was within an eight-point (or narrower) range.*
Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are no longer in this competitive range.
- Because of Iowa’s increasing Republican tilt, the number of general-election campaign visits by presidential and vice-presidential candidates has been declining in recent years—from 27 in 2012, to 21 in 2016, and to five in 2020. Republican Governor Reynold’s 16-point win and Republican Senator Grassley’s 12-point win in 2022 makes it clear that Iowa will not be a closely divided battleground state in 2024.
- Ohio’s visits have also declined sharply in recent years because of the state’s Republican drift—from 73 in 2012, to 48 in 2016, to 13 in 2020. Republican Governor DeWine’s 26-point win and Republican Senator J.D. Vance’s 7-point win in 2022 strongly indicates that Ohio will not be competitive in 2024..
- Florida, Republican Governor De Santis’s 19-point win and Republican Senator Rubio’s 16-point win in 2022 (and other previous recent Republican wins) strongly indicates that Florida will not be a closely divided battleground state in 2024. CNBC story CNN story. Politico story.
* In 2016, almost all (94%) of the general-election campaign events (375 of 399) occurred in the 12 states where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow eight-point range between 47% and 55%. In 2012, 100% of the 253 general-election campaign events occurred in the 12 States where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow six-point range between 45% and 51%. In 2008, almost all (98%) of the general-election campaign events (293 of 300) occurred in the 14 states where the Republican percentage of the two-party vote was in the narrow eight-point range between 42% and 50%.
** Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes statewide and one electoral vote for each congressional district. Maine’s 2nd district and Nebraska’s 2nd district are shown separately in this table because these particular districts are competitive (and, in fact, voted differently for President from the rest of the state in 2020). Then, Maine’s remaining three non-competitive electoral votes and Nebraska’s remaining four non-competitive electoral votes are shown separately.