A poll of 15,000 people conducted by Stack Data Strategy in mid-November 2023 shows that the candidate winning the most popular votes nationwide next year would likely lose the presidency -- repeating what happened in 2016 and 2000.
According to Forbes magazine:
"Biden would win the popular vote." ...
"Trump would win 292 electoral college votes, compared to Biden’s 246, according to the study ... from Stack Data Strategy."
Politico (on November 13, 2023) reports:
"Trump’s projected victory is based on him winning the four states that were decided by the closest margin in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin."
Stack Data Strategy's discussion of their poll. Also see Stack Data Strategy's dashboard shows the poll results by state, the results with different candidates, and Biden's popular-vote lead of 76,161,611 to 74,257,725 (1.23%).