Contrary to myth, the small states are not predominantly Republican in presidential elections.
In fact, they are evenly divided.
In seven of the eight presidential elections between 1992 and 2020, the 13 smallest states (i.e., those with three or four electoral votes) were almost equally divided politically in presidential elections. In fact, a slight majority of them went Democratic.
|
State |
1992 |
1996 |
2000 |
2004 |
2008 |
2012 |
2016 |
2020 |
|
Delaware |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
|
D.C. |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
|
Hawaii |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
|
Maine |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
|
Rhode Island |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
|
Vermont |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
|
New Hampshire |
D |
D |
R |
D |
D |
D |
D |
D |
|
Montana |
D |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
|
Alaska |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
|
Idaho |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
|
North Dakota |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
|
South Dakota |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
|
Wyoming |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
R |
|
Democratic |
8 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
|
Republican |
5 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Moreover, these small states gave a majority of their electoral votes to the Democrats in seven of the eight presidential elections between 1992 and 2020.
|
Party |
1992 |
1996 |
2000 |
2004 |
2008 |
2012 |
2016 |
2020 |
Total |
|
Democratic EV |
27 |
24 |
20 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
23 |
189 |
|
Republican EV |
17 |
20 |
24 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
21 |
21 |
163 |
Note that the above table of electoral votes reflects the fact that Maine awards two of its four electoral votes by congressional district. In 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump won one of Maine’s district-level electoral votes by carrying the state’s 2nd congressional district, while the Democratic nominee won the 1st district and statewide.
The small states are generally very consistent in terms of which party receives their electoral votes. The only two exceptions in recent years were the result of third-party candidacies.
● Montana is the only one of the Republican small states that did not vote Republican in all eight presidential elections between 1992 and 2020. It went for Bill Clinton in 1992 when Ross Perot divided the vote in the state.
● New Hampshire is the only one of the Democratic small states that did not vote Democratic in all eight presidential elections between 1992 and 2020. It went for George W. Bush in 2000 when Ralph Nader divided the vote in the state.
After the 2020 census, West Virginia ended up with four electoral votes—thus increasing the number of small states from 13 to 14.
West Virginia has voted Republican in recent presidential elections.
Thus, in the 2024 election, there were seven Republican and seven Democratic small states.
Also, Montana acquired a fourth electoral vote as a result of the 2020 census.
Thus, in 2024, the Republicans won 26 electoral votes to the Democrat's 21 among the 14 small states.
|
Party |
Total electoral votes in the small states 1992-2024 |
|
Democratic EV |
210 |
|
Republican EV |
189 |
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