Newsletter no. 36

January 4, 2009

Recent Polls in Battleground, Small, Southern, Border, and other States Shows that Voters Strongly Support a National Popular Vote for President

State-level polls (most taken after the November 2008 election) show strong support for a national popular vote for President in battleground states, small states, Southern states, border states, and other states across the country. Support is also strong among Republicans, Democrats, and independents as well as every demographic groups surveyed.

Support for a national popular vote for President among voters in closely divided battleground states was
•    Colorado — 68%
•    Michigan — 73%
•    Missouri — 70%
•    New Hampshire — 69%
•    Nevada — 72%
•    New Mexico — 76%
•    North Carolina — 74%
•    Ohio — 70%
•    Pennsylvania — 78%
•    Virginia — 74%
•    Wisconsin — 71%

Support in smaller states (3 to 5 electoral votes) polled was
•    Delaware — 75%
•    Maine — 71%
•    Nebraska — 74%
•    New Hampshire — 69%
•    Nevada — 72%
•    New Mexico — 76%
•    Rhode Island — 74%
•    Vermont — 75%

Support in Southern and border states polled was
•    Arkansas —80%
•    Kentucky — 80%
•    Mississippi —77%
•    Missouri — 70%
•    North Carolina — 74%
•    Virginia — 74%

Support in other states polled was
•    California — 70%
•    Connecticut — 73%
•    Massachusetts — 73%
•    New York — 79%
•    Washington — 77%

Support was strong among all demographic groups surveyed. For example, the poll of 800 Ohio voters taken December 21-22, 2008 showed 70% overall support for a national popular vote, and the following levels of support among different groups in the state:
•    81% among Democrats, 65% among Republicans, and 61% among others
•    73% among 18-29 year olds, 60% among 30-45 year olds, 67% among 46-65
      year olds, and 78% for those 65 and above
•    84% among women and 54% among men
•    72% among whites (representing 85% of respondents), 62% among African
      Americans (representing 11% of respondents), 75% among Hispanics
      (representing 1% of respondents), and 61% among Others (representing
      3% of respondents).

The details, including cross-tabs, of all of these state polls are available on our web site. Most of the polls involved 800 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 1/2%. Most of the polls were commissioned by National Popular Vote, although several were commissioned by other organizations and simply reported here.

These state-level polls are consistent with numerous national polls conducted over the years. In Gallup polls since 1944, about 70% of Americans have supported a national popular vote for President (with only about 20% opposed and about 10% undecided). The 2007 Washington Post, Kaiser Family Foundation, and Harvard University poll showed 72% support for direct nationwide election of the President.

Background

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

The National Popular Vote bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill is in effect, all the electoral votes from the states that enacted the bill would be awarded, as a bloc, to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would thus guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

The bill has been introduced in 48 state legislatures. The bill is currently endorsed by 1,246 state legislators — 460 sponsors and an additional 786 legislators who have cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.

The National Popular Vote bill has been enacted by states possessing 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect. The four states are Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, and New Jersey. The bill has passed 22 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

The bill has been endorsed by the New York Times, Chicago Sun-Times, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Boston Globe, Hartford Courant, Sacramento Bee, and other newspapers. It has been endorsed by Common Cause, Fair Vote, the NAACP, and other organizations.

The National Advisory Board of National Popular Vote includes former congressmen John Anderson (R–Illinois and later independent presidential candidate), John Buchanan (R–Alabama), Tom Campbell (R–California), and Tom Downey (D–New York), and former Senators Birch Bayh (D–Indiana), David Durenberger (R–Minnesota), and Jake Garn (R–Utah).

Additional information is available in the book Every Vote Equal: A State-Based Plan for Electing the President by National Popular Vote (available for reading or downloading for free at our web site).