In 1992, Democratic operative James Carville coined the phrase, "It's the economy, stupid." It was his charming way of reminding the rest of us to focus on what was really important in that election. Carville was right, as he usually is, and Bill Clinton became president.
Issues change from election to election, this year it's jobs. But there is one constant no matter the issue, no matter the year. The election will be decided by seven swing states.
Most discussions concerning President Obama's reelection chances ignore what I call Electoral College realities. "Morning Joe" on MSNBC, "American Morning" on CNN and all the rest have a good time discussing the latest sampling of public opinion. Mika is thrilled when she learns that some outlier poll has Mr. Obama at a 49 percent approval rating. At another time, Joe is perplexed at Gallop's finding that only 39 percent of Americans think Obama is doing a good job. The entire cast is surprised to learn that 64 percent of Americans believe that Ron Paul is an alien sent from Uranus to study our political system. (Just kidding on the last one. You can't get 64 percent of Americans to agree on anything.)
The 2012 presidential election promises to be extremely competitive. A generic Republican may beat Mr. Obama by eight points in some poll, but the flesh-and-blood variety Republicans rarely poll better than the president. For all the talk about disappointed blacks, angry Hispanics and up-in-arms white oldsters, both parties are gearing up to make their big effort in the nine swing states. Forget national polls, it's the Electoral College math that matters most.
Columnist Gerald F. Seib, writing in The Wall Street Journal, believes the math greatly favors the Democrats.
"Specifically, there are 18 states plus the District of Columbia that have voted Democratic in all five presidential elections since 1992. Combined, they carry 242 electoral votes — 90 percent of the votes needed for victory."
What Seib misses is that since 1996, Democrats and Republicans have each won two elections. The 1992 race was skewed by Ross Perot who drew 19 percent of the vote, most of which would have gone to incumbent George H. W. Bush.
Still, Seib's view that Republicans have a much steeper hill to climb is born out by the numbers.
Baring President Obama confessing to be a Muslim extremist, he is assured of 216 electoral votes, not the 242 Seib gives him: Maine (4), Connecticut (7), Vermont (3), Delaware (3), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Maryland (10), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Pennsylvania (20), Illinois (20), Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), California (55), Washington State (12), Hawaii (4) and Washington, D.C. (3).
On the Democratic side you might want to take issue with including Pennsylvania in the automatic column but even though the economy is bad, the Keystone State has resisted all Republican efforts, and the Democratic machine in South Philadelphia can steal enough votes to overcome disaffected voters in the western part of the state.
Michigan (16), New Mexico (5) and Wisconsin (10) may not be automatics this year. Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, believes "A low Hispanic vote in 2012 could flip New Mexicoβ¦ In Michigan, economic problems might cause voters to cool on Democrats. Wisconsin, narrowly Democratic in 2000 and 2004, is a cauldron of unpredictable countertrends." Still, at least Michigan belongs in the Democratic column, at least until we see the Fourth Sign of the Apocalypse — add 16 to the Democratic column.
Republicans are assured of 170 electoral votes, presuming they run a candidate who will not be dribbling oatmeal from his, or her, mouth during debate performances: Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Idaho (4), Utah (6), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), West Virginia (5), Tennessee (11), Louisiana (8), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Arkansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Texas (38), Georgia (16); and South Carolina (9), Indiana (11) and North Carolina (15) surprised everyone and went to the Democratic side in 2008 but very few believe they will be there in 2012. Missouri (10) actually went for McCain in 2008 so that can be added to the Republican total.
The Democrats have wrapped up or lead in 17 states with 232 electoral votes. Republicans have or lead in 24 states with 206 electoral votes. That is why the political operatives in both parties already concentrate efforts on the states necessary to reach the magical 270 figure.
With neither party being assured of the necessary 270 electoral votes, it all comes down to the seven swing states. Florida (29) is the biggest prize and with Bush winning in 2004 and Obama in 2008, it is truly a swing state. Florida along with Ohio (18) and Virginia (13) have 60 of the 85 swing state votes. The remaining 35 come from Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6) and Nevada (6).
Mr. Obama is trailing in Florida polls but that is but a snapshot of the moment. Republicans may have a slight edge in Virginia, as it has been firmly Republican since 1980. Its swing to the Democrats in 2008 was a very big surprise. Ohio went Democrat in 2008, which was no surprise, but it was a narrower margin than predicted and Republican victories in the state since then have put the state in the undecided column.
As to Colorado and Nevada, it all depends on Hispanic vote turnout. With Iowa, who knows? There's always trouble in River City. New Hampshire threatens to be a Republican oasis in true blue New England but it leans to the Democratic side.
The president is now roaming around the country with an understandable emphasis on the swing states. He understands the importance of Florida and the others. We are the most important battleground, and it is very likely the Sunshine State with help from the Buckeye folks and the Old Dominion state will decide who will be our next president.
Expect to see many dedications of windmills, solar panels, and even an odd bridge or two. Why not, we're important.
